A high-level look at the Northern Colorado region shows that the number of residential sales is down 5.4% in Larimer County and up 4.7% in Weld County. This is simply comparing the number of closings from June 2018 to June 2019 versus June 2017 to June 2018.
The high-level look doesn’t tell the whole story. It get’s more interesting when we look at individual Northern Colorado cities and towns:
• Fort Collins = -8.8%
• Loveland = -5.7%
• Greeley = +11.7%
• Windsor = +16%
• Wellington = -16.9%
• Timnath = +44.1%
• Severance = +20.4%
• Johnstown = -18.7%
• Berthoud = +18.1%
• Evans = -14.7%
So, what can we learn from this? The areas with increased sales are where there is an abundance of new construction (Timnath and Severance for example).
The areas with decreased sales don’t have an abundance of new construction (Fort Collins for example).
The exceptions to this would be Wellington and Johnstown. It appears that there is price sensitivity to the new construction product now being built in these areas. Given rising costs, builders are challenged to deliver a product under $350,000 in these places.
For instance, in Wellington, between June 2017 and June 2018 there were 137 sales of new homes priced under $350,000. Today there are only 6 new homes on the market at that price point.
As we are helping people understand their new property assessments and putting together information so that they may protest their new valuation, here is the most common question we hear…
Did my property really go up that much?
Here are some stats that will help you answer that question.
First, you need to know that property assessments are done by the County every two years. So, as you look at how much your property increased in value according to the County, keep in mind that this increase is over a two-year period.
Next, it will help you to know how much our markets increased, on average, over the last two years. This data comes from our most trusted source, the Federal Housing Finance Authority.
Two Year Appreciation:
• Metro Denver = 18.65%
• Larimer County = 17.60%
• Weld County = 22.31%
• Boulder County = 16.28%
If you have questions about your new valuation or how to protest your property’s assessment, we would be happy to help. Just reach out and let us know.
Property owners all over Colorado have a gift waiting for them in their mailbox- their new property tax notifications.
Every two years, each county in Colorado places a new value on property for property tax purposes.
No surprise, values were up along the Front Range.
Here is the percentage of increase for various Colorado counties (keep in mind that this increase is for two years):
- Adams 24%
- Arapahoe 22%
- Larimer 19%
- Douglas 14%
- Jefferson 14%
- Boulder 12%
If you have questions about how to respond to your tax notification, we can help! We would be happy to provide you with an up-to-date market analysis and walk you through the steps on how to protest your new value if you don’t agree with it.
You can also watch this webinar we put together which shows you everything you need to know about your new property valuation and how to respond.
You can watch it HERE.
The real estate market keeps chugging along.
Here’s news from the Mortgage Banker’s Association…
Last week, applications to purchase a home hit their highest level since April 2010. This is clearly a sign that the spring selling season is starting off in full swing.
You may remember that the reason why April 2010 was so active is because of the Home Buyer Tax Credit that was in effect. In order to get a special income tax incentive, buyers had to go under contract in April 2010 and close by June 30, 2010.
Today, purchase applications are at their highest level in 9 years and are up 14% over last year. Interest rates are roughly 0.5% lower than 6 months ago and roughly 3.0% below their long-term average.
Let the Spring Selling Season begin!
Just a few months ago most people thought mortgage rates were heading to 5% and now they are back to where they were a year ago.
You probably saw this week’s news from the Federal Reserve declaring that they would not raise their Federal Funds rate for the rest of 2019
(just three months after saying they would raise rates at least twice this year).
While this is big news, even bigger news for mortgage rates is that the 10-year Treasury yield just hit its lowest point since January 2018. One thing we’ve learned from our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is that mortgage rates follow the 10-year treasury (not necessarily the Fed Funds rate).
Last Spring it looked like mortgage rates had bottomed out and they steadily climbed through the Summer and Fall of 2018. It looked certain that they would hit 5% around January.
Instead they started dropping. Now with the 10-year Treasury at a 15-month low, they just dropped a little more and they are back to where they were a year ago.
Great news for buyers! Party like it’s 2018!
Not only because tax returns are due in two weeks but also because you will soon receive your property tax notification in the mail.
Every two years your County re-assesses the value of your property and then sends that new value to you.
When this happens, many of our clients:
- Don’t agree with the new assessed value
- Aren’t sure what to do
- Are confused by the process
- Want to save money on property taxes
Good news! We have a webinar that will help you. On the webinar we will show you:
- How to read the information from the County
- What it means for you
- How to protest the valuation if you want
- How to get an accurate estimate of your property’s value
You can listen to the webinar live or get the recording. In any case, you can sign up atwww.WindermereWorkshop.com
The webinar is April 17th at 10:00. If you can’t join live, go ahead and register so you can automatically receive the recording.
This is a complimentary online workshop for all of our clients. We hope you can join!
While the “Bomb Cyclone” closed roads and schools over the last two days, the “Condo Cyclone” is opening new opportunities for first-time buyers.
What’s the “Condo Cyclone” you ask. It’s the proliferation of multi-family inventory that has come on the market up and down the Front Range.
Compared to last year, multi-family inventory which includes town-homes and condominiums, has increased…
• 79% in Metro Denver
• 34% in Larimer County
• 45% in Weld County
This is terrific news for the market overall, as inventory has been unusually low for several months. It’s especially terrific news for first-time buyers who need this type of product as a stepping stone to home ownership.
What we notice is a $170,000 to $130,000 difference in average price between a single-family home and a multi-family home in Front Range markets.
Specifically, here’s the spread between multi-family and single-family average price:
• $349,801 vs. $512,312 in Metro Denver
• $312,493 vs. $469,294 in Larimer County
• $237,645 vs. $370,027 in Weld County
So as we dig out from the “Bomb Cyclone” we can be happy for the “Condo Cyclone” which brings more affordability and opportunity to our markets!
Just Released (a new resource site just for you…)
• Want to see the latest market trends?
• Curious to see the process of buying or selling a home?
• Interested in what it takes to own investment property?
• Be sure to visit www.ColoradoLivingBlog.com
- New Homes
- New Apartments
- New Medical Facilities
However, you will not notice new office buildings under construction.
What gives? I thought we had a booming economy. Why no new office buildings?
There are a couple of reasons. First, construction costs have sky rocketed. In ten years, construction costs have gone from about $200 per square foot to over $300 per square foot.
Rental rates have not increased at the same pace as construction costs so speculative investors can’t make their numbers work.
It’s too expensive to build compared to the rents that can be charged.
One reason why rental rates haven’t increased at high rate is property taxes. Property taxes on Class A office buildings have basically doubled in the last 10 years in many cases.
So, until rental rates catch up with construction costs, we won’t see many new office buildings under construction.
The results are in from FHFA.gov’s latest ranking of the top performing markets in the U.S.
Each quarter they track 245 cities across the country and rank their real estate markets by home price appreciation.
What’s the highest performing city the the U.S.
Vegas! Their prices have gone up 17.63% in the last year.
How about the worst?
Bloomington, Illinois sits in dead last where prices went down 3.58%
Here’s how Colorado cities are ranked:
• #10 Colo. Springs = 11.41%
• #16 Greeley = 10.68%
• #59 Fort Collins = 8.29%
• #64 Denver = 8.15%
• #97 Boulder = 6.85%
There are several reasons why our Chief Economist does not believe there is a housing bubble today in the U.S.
Below is a slide he shared at our recent market Forecast events.
It shows U.S. Home ownership rate, which is simply the percentage of the population who own their home (versus renting).
The long-term average is 65% represented by the red line.
In the graph you can clearly see the bubble forming. Starting in the mid-90’s, driven by several political and economic factors, more people than ever before became homeowners.
Then, starting in, 2008, the bubble burst and the percentage tumbled back down.
Now, as you can see, we are back at a “normal” level that resembles the long-term average.
If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to us. We would be happy to put it in your hands.